Brain Stuff

Thought I'd share this video with you from one of my favorite channels on YouTube.

Its amazing how you can shift states of mind when trading.  I can be in complete cruise control only to be shunted into a state of panic, it can be difficult to get back in the zone again straight away. I have done a lot of work on understanding my own mentality towards tradings with the help of eBooks and videos like this. It's really helped me overcome some of the emotional triggers that had began to affect my performance. One of my triggers was boredom, I suppose after 5 years of trading this was always likely to creep in so now use new found techniques to overcome these feelings.

60% So does it suprise me?

If you look at the direction that Betfair have been heading in recent times it does not surprise me to see an increase in the premium charge. But the size and rules applied to the new “bracket” are a massive shock that will have huge consequences to all exchange players not just the suggested “500” that Betfair have quoted.

The lifetime +250k bracket and soaring percentage increase only highlight what I have suspected for a while. Betfair want to be the main market maker, they want even more of the pie and they want to force the best competition out of the picture.

So how will things look post 18thJuly?

It’s always very difficult to predict how markets will change after such an adjustment and I really have no idea how things will look and feel. Maybe the big hitters will continue to trade and accept the new charge; we may see a big increase in volumes and liquidity over at Betdaq. These markets are always changing shape but even in today’s ‘uncertain’ markets I was able to pull in a decent profit from the 15 races I traded.
                                                        

I had personally planned to see out the summer trading and restart one to one tuition in the winter but this recent shift has forced me to bring forward the re-launch of BettingExchangeTutor.com
There are still plenty of opportunities to make money on Betfair and I now aim to help some of the other 3 million customers earn a second income from trading.

Visit the website here for more details on my one to one courses which can now be attended online.

I have also uploaded a new video to my youtube channel which can be viewed from here

Fat Fingers and Cross Matching

Pretty good example yesterday of how the cross matching can create wild spikes across the market if someone or someone's bot has a big accident.

Its was an outsider so most manual traders of the favorites would have had a 'wtf' moment during this activity.

My advice is not to panic with irregular jumps in the market and take a look at the bigger picture before exiting positions

Weight of Money (WOM)

WOM was one of the first indicators I learned to use when I started trading 5 years ago. I recall watching Adam Todd’s scalping videos using the early Bet-Trader. I’m pretty sure he was the first to introduce the ladder interface and that combined with WOM and momentum trading made for a solid foundation to build on.

As the Exchange evolves so do the characteristics of the indicators we use and WOM especially has become much more difficult to interpret. It can be used to trap, hold, manipulate and the recent introduction of cross matching  brings even more distortion to how WOM is perceived.

Below are two examples from today where WOM is clearly evident.  It’s pretty rare to see volumes of this size being matched especially on races like this with low turnover. Bearing that in mind my advice is to ignore its presence.... sometimes easier said than done!

The Masters at Augusta

I Plotted up at around 7pm yesterday to watch this fantastic golf event and with the laptop nearby I waited for the story to unfold. I felt sorry for the 4th round leader Mcilroy who was having a nightmare but the entertainment provided by the other players made for spectacular viewing and some good trading opportunities. It was hard to keep up with it all at times with 6 players having a share of the lead and a few more only one shot away.

I'm a keen golfer myself and I had a few ideas on how I could trade this event after experimenting with stats in the past. I got off to a steady start when Mcilroy was in meltdown and the late surge from Tiger Woods made for some great swing trades. I had a scare late on when my internet failed and I had to scramble on to the Betfair mobile app to close a position but apart from that it was great fun trading a sport that I enjoy watching.

Back to Reality

I decided to take last week off after a great Cheltenham. According to the Bet-angel forums it was a tricky week on the trading front and with the great weather we had in London It was a good decision to leave it alone. There was one day where I finished playing golf by 2pm and I was tempted to race back to the office and trade but I stuck to decision and went back to the first hole to work on my handicap instead. I think it’s important to take time out and recharge, trading is intense and can slowly wear you down without you realising.

Shot of the day

(This almost never happens!)

Cheltenham

It took me a little longer to adapt to the big meeting this year. It’s no surprise really as I was experimenting with Betdaq for half of the Cheltenham races, something I’ve never tried before but by the third day I was flying and had my best two days in over a year. Betdaq markets are a different beast. Although they follow Betfair very closely in terms of prices they can feel very illiquid in contrast to Betfair and the fill rate frequency is lower so a different approach is needed. 

It’s a shame but I do try not to get excited or have any kind of opinion on the horses even in these big races. At the end of the day my edge isn’t form/opinion based and if I started to mix this into my trading it would just be plain gambling.

 Betdaq

Adapting to Big Meetings

This week see's the first Major meeting of the year at Cheltenham. I always look forward to tackling these markets as they are very different to normal race cards. There seems to be bit of a "marmite" feeling amongst some traders with these and depending on your trading style it might be quite tricky for you especially if your expecting too much. My advice is to take it steady on Tuesday and feel your way into things slowly. You dont want to do what i did last year and have a negative start. I wasn't totally prepared for this type of market and ended up having to fight back Cheltenham losses on the weaker cards which made for some nervous trading on day one. As the week went on I got used to the bigger volumes and became much more patient in "slow motion" markets. The only nerves i may face this year are if Betfair crashes and i have to make a counter trade on Betdaq, but that's another story that frustrates me so much i dont talk about it.

My preparation for Cheltenham this year has simply been to stick to the goals i set in January. One of these goals was to try and go 25/50/100 races without a losing race. I have now achieved two of these targets and although I may not be making as much profit were I to take more risks the benefits I'm feeling elsewhere are  outweighing any thoughts of P&L. It has helped me become much more confident in my trading again after poor end to last year. I almost feel Invincible in the markets and working towards these goals is helping to eliminate some of the bad habits and weaknesses that had crept into my game

50 Not Out

Fingers crossed Betfair can prove us all wrong and hold up this week. Good luck everyone!

Sam