January and Other Sports

 January

January is never an amazing month on the racing calendar. The poor quality meetings and abandoned race cards can be very frustrating. Many races offer little opportunity and Ive found that being patient and trading defensively is the way to go. Ive managed to beat the previous years January totals and with some extra profits from the Australian open its been a decent start to 2011.

The introduction of the cross matching to racing has also had an effect on the mechanics of the Win market and I imagine certain players are noticing  changes for the better/worse. It certainly wont affect everyone but it will be interesting to see how things pan out over the next few months

Other sports

In the past when I'd ventured into other sports I always struggled to adapt. Using the wrong stakes and a clear lack of knowledge on how these markets worked led to some harsh lessons in football which put me off for a while. However, since last year Ive learned how to approach new sports with a completely fresh mindset and money management plan. The tools on Bet-angel: Soccer-Mystic and Tennis-Trader have really helped me to understand the market mechanics and now around 10% of my trading income comes from trading other sports. Understanding how other markets work can also be beneficial when referring back to your primary market. I know a lot more now about the book % and how markets are balanced.

Betfair site maintenance

Betfair returned around midday today but was not functioning at all well. Its best to take the day off in this situation as the market could fail at anytime leaving you exposed. Hopefully it will be sorted in the next few days.

Time to Reflect

Well It’s been a while since my last post, 6 months to be precise. The current bad weather and abandoned race cards have given me a chance to reflect on things in and outside of trading this year.

When I first started writing this blog, I wanted it to assist my trading and be a reference point for my progression as a trader. I do believe that writing about your experiences and goals is a great way of keeping on track but for me, deciding to share those thoughts became less fulfilling overtime and with much more screen time dedicated to tuition and other trading activity, writing about it all was the last thing on my mind. I’ve now started writing in a Journal instead; it’s much better for me personally. I think it really helps me to let everything out after a days trading. It also doubles up to be like a scrap book of thoughts, ideas and emotion’s. I will often revisit certain post’s to draw on the emotions of that day and use the positive/negative comments to set goals and remember clearly the feelings involved at the time. These kinds of practices are pretty new to me and over the last few months I’ve looked much more in depth at the subject of trading psychology. If I am to make more posts here in the future I imagine they will be tilted more towards psychology and self coaching and how to apply them to sports trading. At the moment I feel like I’m only scraping the edges of a fascinating subject that’s changing the way I think about myself and the markets.

Balance

A trader’s lifestyle should be a balanced one. When I set up the Betting Exchange Tutor site I knew that balancing tuition with my own trading could lead to fatigue so I kept course bookings to a max per week. Looking back at the year now that wasn’t enough, I really enjoyed teaching people about the markets and I witnessed many a“light bulb” moment from clients but by the end of the day I was always extremely tired. Talking about the markets is much more tiring than participating in them and it started to affect my performance especially in the evening racing, some days I wouldn’t even bother trading past 5pm as I knew my mind and body couldn’t compete. I will start teaching again next year but need to strike a balance where it won’t affect my own progression. I like the idea of getting out and teaching people, be it in their homes or offices, even on a laptop In Hyde park if the weathers good. I should be located more centrally in London by early next year so the idea of “mobile betting exchange tutor” is the biggest scribble on a post it note at the moment.

The current “big freeze” has also given me a chance to go back and review my figures from this year. Profit & loss wise it’s been a disappointing end to the year. I always expect to beat previous years and it’s frustrating to know that this wont happened in 2010. I shouldn’t be too hard on myself though, the markets were more competitive than ever and I hadn’t done enough early on in the year with regards to reinvention and setting new targets. I have discovered that finding a balance between scaling down old strategies whilst reinventing new ones is a challenge and in the future I need to be aware of my performance statistically to assist these changes. I didn’t set any long term goals at the beginning of the year either but probably had too higher expectations. That in itself is bad combination and with that kind of mindset I wasn’t trading defensively enough on weaker cards leading to unnecessary losses and stops in momentum.

I’ve learn t a lot about myself and my trading this year, much more than any other and I hope that the physical and mental changes I’ve made to my game will boost my trading in 2011. I’m looking forward to a fresh challenge and for the first time will have goals and targets aim for….. But For now I’m just going to enjoy the Snow, Christmas and New Year.

Have a good one!

Sam

a REAL shock?

Another interesting night of Champions League action yesterday evening. I was more interested in the Madrid vs Lyon match after a good start on the Utd game. Real went 1-0 up after 6 minutes. The win market hovered around 1.12/1.13 for most of the first half, which was probably value if you saw some of the chances Madrid had. However, Lyon looked much more dangerous in the second half and the potential upside of a Lyon goal became and option. I Layed Madrid at 1.13 and got out straight after the equalizer. Madrid now needed two goals and it was a miracle that the game ended in a draw with Lyon missing countless chances on the counter attack.

In Running Angles

Many Pre-Race traders dont touch the In-running markets. They are extremely volitile and you will often see traders scrambling to close positions just seconds before the off. Its also likely to witness much larger price movements just after the start regardless of the horses position in the field.

Even with a 4 second delay on sky's racing channels ATR and RUK its still possible to find decent value In-running. Use smaller stakes to stay in control and dont be too greedy. Heres a clip from a few weeks back where i picked a potential in-running steamer based on some factors of the pre-race market.



Right click and "Watch on You Tube!

Champions league belter

Cracking game tonight between Ac Milan and Manchester Utd, It had everything. There was over 500k matched on Utd at 1.01 when Seedorf scored in the 85th minute. Almost a minute later Inzaghi had a great chance to level the game and  pull off an amazing come back.

I had some excellent positions in the correct score market, especially in the first half. On two or three occasions a second Milan goal would have put me in healthy profit, but it was Scholes who popped up with an equalizer to leave me on a much smaller green for that market.

The Drifters

Caught this drift on camera yesterday on Blue Nymph in the 15:05 at Doncaster. I was trading the favourite but couldnt help noticing the speed of the move in the corner of my eye. The SP according to sporting life was 7/1. I had a specualtive bet at 14.0 just before the off. I wasnt sure if the horse had been playing up and it did touch 40's In Running before going on to WIN the race. Would of been nice to hang on a bit longer before i got out.

"Fergie, sign him up... Fergie Fergie Sign him up"

Was sung sarcastically by the Man City fans after their 2-1 victory over united last night. Two goal Tevez stole the show but i thought united deserved a draw after all that late pressure. I arrived just in time for kick off and was shocked to see how much the market moved against city pushing them out to over 4.0. United's line up was strong for a Carling cup tie and this clearly had a say in the prices. I was trading the correct score market when united went ahead and managed to get some decent positions before the goal..

City's price went out to 12.5 but with 55 minutes remaining and Bellamy/Tevez looking dangerous i decided to ask for 13.0 and hope for a goal. Not a penny matched when Bellamy goes down in the box to win a penalty for the home side. I guess I've just gotta go with my instincts a bit more.