Adapt & Survive

Record Keeping

2012-02-01T01:28:00.000-08:00

For a long time Profit & Loss figures were the only records I was keeping from my trading. One year I got so slack I didn’t even keep up with P&L for around 6 months and I had to email Betfair to ask for the spreadsheet. I was clearly only interested about the bottom line and wasn’t prepared to look deeper statistically at where I could improve. I guess it’s easy to become complacent when things are going well but when things slowly stop working and you can’t pin point why I can tell you it is extremely frustrating.

I recall a post made by Peter Webb a few years ago; he had noticed that his return on investment (ROI) on certain strategy was in slow decline so he knew he had to start making changes. Although I was doing well at the time I should have taken more notice as I and probably many others have struggled to adapt to market shifts in the past. I have had to work very hard to reinvent my trading methods to continue to profit from the exchange and keeping good and detailed records has played a big part in this transition.

Record keeping has also helped with goal setting and making monthly/yearly comparisons.

Below is my P&L comparison of January 2011 and January 2012.

Initially I was a little disappointed that I hadn't greatly exceeded last years Pre-race total but looking in more depth I had actually traded 30% less races compared to this time last year. This fact reassured me of my progress where previously I may have had doubts. I started trading In-play around 15 months ago so it was no surprise to see an improvement here and it will be interesting to see how far I can go with that this year.

Finally, Go here for a great Spreadsheet for monitoring your P&L by Multiple criteria.

http://betfairtradingmindgames.blogspot.com/2011/04/results-summary-v2-spreadsheet-is-here.html

Excelling in Excel

2012-01-09T02:03:00.000-08:00

Learning to integrate automation into my trading has been on the ‘to-do’ list for a while now and during the winter I’ve really started to get the ball rolling with excel. I feel it’s something that I must learn now if I want to progress further and I’m hoping my efforts will open up new avenues to explore and profit from in 2012.

I’ve gone off in two directions with this. The first is learning how manipulate and study the Betfair historical data so I can look for trends and back-test trading theories and ideas. The second path is targeted towards assisting my manual trading and maybe one day being confident enough to leave a ‘hands free’ Bot making trades without human intervention.

I am only in the early stages of both projects but can already see the huge potential of using Excel alongside my trading. Playing around with the historical data has shown me that in general, as I expected, the market at Betfair SP is very efficient. But, looking deeper at more refined criteria and taking the in-play market into consideration I have already found some very interesting angles to follow.

Excel VBA was like Chinese to me 2 months ago. It is still like Chinese but now I know 5 sentences and 50 words. That’s how I would describe my progress so far and although it may sound slow you’d be surprised how far you can go with those language skills. (I have not tried that by the way although Dim and Sum might come in handy)

As a trader who has spent many hours watching racing markets I have developed a kind of ‘sixth sense’ that doesn’t translate easily into a set of programmable rules. Getting excel to think and perform exactly as I do isn’t realistic but I can get it to assist me in areas where my hands and eyes are at full stretch. It can also execute repetitive tasks that when performed manually could be hampered by boredom/tiredness or might lead to missed opportunities.

I wish now I had pushed myself into learning excel a long time ago as it really does add a new dimension to my trading but I guess that’s just one of those things. The Instinct I have developed from watching the markets over the years is still the key to my success and it will be essential for the development of any automated strategy’s in the future.

Xmas

The Festive period was quite for me as always. I rarely trade over Xmas and New Year and although there are some high class race days I prefer to take an extended break and spend quality time with friends and family. I’m learning how important it is to maintain a good balance is between work/play and knowing when to take a break from the screen. This was a difficult decision to make in winter 2010 as I was feeling pressured by bad results. A big difference in 2011 has been a more regimented approach and I want to work even more on that in 2012. This includes planning the weeks ahead instead of looking at race cards daily and saying ...

“Oh this looks rubbish” or “I might trade today”.

It has also become second nature to go to the gym or go swimming before a trading session. If I sit at the screens without this preparation it just doesn’t feel right and I’m more likely to lose concentration or miss a big opportunity. My main goals for this year are to maintain and improve these new changes to my lifestyle and to be even more aware of my performance levels throughout the year. I can’t set a financial goal as this just doesn’t work well for me; I want to take each day as it comes and although I naturally have expectations I’d prefer to be absorbed in the markets rather than thinking about how much should be making. I also hope the work I have done in excel can flourish this year and open up a few more profitable roads to explore.

I wish you all the best of luck in 2012 and I do plan to be a little more sociable on this blog ;)

Sam.

I Remember September...

2011-10-05T00:49:00.000-07:00

Last year, I had a tricky month and couldn’t gather any momentum after taking some bigger than normal losses. It was a similar story during October and although I was making a profit overall, the path was bumpy and stressful, it forced me to really work on my overall game and iron out some bad habits that had crept into my trading.

From a psychological perspective one of the things I looked at was how a losing trade could affect my performance moving forward. It was incredible to see how often I would have a losing race after a losing race and this same trend was becoming evident in my daily P&L. I used to be good at taking losses and I would naturally set out to take each race as it came but for some reason my mentality had changed. It’s difficult to pin point exactly where and why this happened but the underlying reason would probably be that I was getting frustrated with the markets and couldn’t meet my own high expectations, I knew something had to change.

I came across a blog called Traderfeed and could relate to many of the topics I was reading. One of these topics was performance anxiety. I purchased The Daily Trading Coach by Brett Steenbarger who is also the author of the blog and In parts it was almost as if the book was written for me. I felt I was stuck and this rough patch was kick I needed to wake up and change my ways.

From “The Daily Trading Coach:” Lesson 1: Draw on Emotion to Become a Change Agent

“We desire changes in our lives. We adapt—we grow—by making the right kinds of changes. All too often, however, we feel stuck. We’re doing the same things, making the same mistakes again and again. Do we wait for life to change us, or do we become agents of our own life changes?

The easy part is initiating a change process. The real challenge is sustaining change. How many times does an alcoholic take the initial steps toward sobriety, only to relapse? How often do we start diets and exercise programs, only to return to our slothful ways? If we focus on starting a change process, we leave ourselves unprepared for the next crucial steps: keeping the flame of change burning bright.”

I made big changes to my daily routine and how I approached each day with regards to goal setting and targets. I started writing in a diary after each day’s trading and quickly began to spot patterns in why I was making mistakes or getting frustrated. Here is a sample from my own diary last October where I talk about how watching videos of my own trading is helping to identify my triggers.

My Diary Oct16th 2010

"Watched a video of a losing race before trading today. It is crazy to see the hesitation and lack of control when these types of trades go against me. It has really helped to watch this one back and it reminded me how it feels when I get caught like this and how this can lead to a stressful day. l should do this more often before racing as Steenbarger suggests for a visualisation technique."

Today went well and I felt in the zone from an early stage. I started to fade as did the markets (hopefully linked) as the last hour came in and there were a few niggly losses at the end of the day which I should of limited or turned green if I was more focused and not being greedy."

I am much more aware now of my risk in the market and what I can handle without becoming emotionally blinded. I never thought that the toughest challenge of my trading career would be 4 years in. I had always assumed that the hardest hurdles were at the beginning but I can tell you for a fact that’s not always the case.

This graph below shows my P&L comparison of Sept 2010 & Sept 2011. I only had one losing day this September compared to seven in Sept2010. The momentum gained from setting out not to lose really is worth it not only from a financial sense but also mentally I feel much stronger. I’m much more confident compared to this time last year and believe I can keep this momentum going through the winter months.

Jumping Ship

2011-07-30T05:39:00.000-07:00

Glorious Goodwood continues into this weekend and Betdaq is proving to be a great place to take your trading activity. I have traded Betdaq In most of the major meetings this year with decent results and with even more reason to Jump ship this time round it’s promising to see more liquidity flowing into these markets. I’m using Bet-angel for Betdaq which you can download Here.

Check out one of my typical trading setups for this week; It’s very unlikely that you will be able to squeeze this much onto one screen but it shows the true possibilities of trading both exchanges simultaneously if you invest in some "screen real estate".

Its a pretty big picture file so feel free to zoom in a have a wander around.

Remember that you don't need all of this info to make a profit! But it does help!

I'm using both versions of Bet-Angel here.

Excuse the cheeky dig at BF but i think they deserve it don't you!

Brain Stuff

2011-07-15T05:43:00.000-07:00

Thought I'd share this video with you from one of my favorite channels on YouTube.

Its amazing how you can shift states of mind when trading. I can be in complete cruise control only to be shunted into a state of panic, it can be difficult to get back in the zone again straight away. I have done a lot of work on understanding my own mentality towards tradings with the help of eBooks and videos like this. It's really helped me overcome some of the emotional triggers that had began to affect my performance. One of my triggers was boredom, I suppose after 5 years of trading this was always likely to creep in so now use new found techniques to overcome these feelings.

60% So does it suprise me?

2011-07-08T10:30:00.000-07:00

If you look at the direction that Betfair have been heading in recent times it does not surprise me to see an increase in the premium charge. But the size and rules applied to the new “bracket” are a massive shock that will have huge consequences to all exchange players not just the suggested “500” that Betfair have quoted.

The lifetime +250k bracket and soaring percentage increase only highlight what I have suspected for a while. Betfair want to be the main market maker, they want even more of the pie and they want to force the best competition out of the picture.

So how will things look post 18thJuly?

It’s always very difficult to predict how markets will change after such an adjustment and I really have no idea how things will look and feel. Maybe the big hitters will continue to trade and accept the new charge; we may see a big increase in volumes and liquidity over at Betdaq. These markets are always changing shape but even in today’s ‘uncertain’ markets I was able to pull in a decent profit from the 15 races I traded.

I had personally planned to see out the summer trading and restart one to one tuition in the winter but this recent shift has forced me to bring forward the re-launch of BettingExchangeTutor.com
There are still plenty of opportunities to make money on Betfair and I now aim to help some of the other 3 million customers earn a second income from trading.

Visit the website here for more details on my one to one courses which can now be attended online.

I have also uploaded a new video to my youtube channel which can be viewed from here

Fat Fingers and Cross Matching

2011-05-27T05:28:00.000-07:00

Pretty good example yesterday of how the cross matching can create wild spikes across the market if someone or someone's bot has a big accident.

Its was an outsider so most manual traders of the favorites would have had a 'wtf' moment during this activity.

My advice is not to panic with irregular jumps in the market and take a look at the bigger picture before exiting positions

Weight of Money (WOM)

2011-04-26T14:28:00.000-07:00

WOM was one of the first indicators I learned to use when I started trading 5 years ago. I recall watching Adam Todd’s scalping videos using the early Bet-Trader. I’m pretty sure he was the first to introduce the ladder interface and that combined with WOM and momentum trading made for a solid foundation to build on.

As the Exchange evolves so do the characteristics of the indicators we use and WOM especially has become much more difficult to interpret. It can be used to trap, hold, manipulate and the recent introduction of cross matching brings even more distortion to how WOM is perceived.

Below are two examples from today where WOM is clearly evident. It’s pretty rare to see volumes of this size being matched especially on races like this with low turnover. Bearing that in mind my advice is to ignore its presence.... sometimes easier said than done!

The Masters at Augusta

2011-04-11T03:01:00.000-07:00

I Plotted up at around 7pm yesterday to watch this fantastic golf event and with the laptop nearby I waited for the story to unfold. I felt sorry for the 4th round leader Mcilroy who was having a nightmare but the entertainment provided by the other players made for spectacular viewing and some good trading opportunities. It was hard to keep up with it all at times with 6 players having a share of the lead and a few more only one shot away.

I'm a keen golfer myself and I had a few ideas on how I could trade this event after experimenting with stats in the past. I got off to a steady start when Mcilroy was in meltdown and the late surge from Tiger Woods made for some great swing trades. I had a scare late on when my internet failed and I had to scramble on to the Betfair mobile app to close a position but apart from that it was great fun trading a sport that I enjoy watching.

Back to Reality

2011-03-29T03:38:00.000-07:00

I decided to take last week off after a great Cheltenham. According to the Bet-angel forums it was a tricky week on the trading front and with the great weather we had in London It was a good decision to leave it alone. There was one day where I finished playing golf by 2pm and I was tempted to race back to the office and trade but I stuck to decision and went back to the first hole to work on my handicap instead. I think it’s important to take time out and recharge, trading is intense and can slowly wear you down without you realising.

Shot of the day

(This almost never happens!)

Cheltenham

It took me a little longer to adapt to the big meeting this year. It’s no surprise really as I was experimenting with Betdaq for half of the Cheltenham races, something I’ve never tried before but by the third day I was flying and had my best two days in over a year. Betdaq markets are a different beast. Although they follow Betfair very closely in terms of prices they can feel very illiquid in contrast to Betfair and the fill rate frequency is lower so a different approach is needed.

It’s a shame but I do try not to get excited or have any kind of opinion on the horses even in these big races. At the end of the day my edge isn’t form/opinion based and if I started to mix this into my trading it would just be plain gambling.

Betdaq

Adapting to Big Meetings

2011-03-14T03:31:00.000-07:00

This week see's the first Major meeting of the year at Cheltenham. I always look forward to tackling these markets as they are very different to normal race cards. There seems to be bit of a "marmite" feeling amongst some traders with these and depending on your trading style it might be quite tricky for you especially if your expecting too much. My advice is to take it steady on Tuesday and feel your way into things slowly. You dont want to do what i did last year and have a negative start. I wasn't totally prepared for this type of market and ended up having to fight back Cheltenham losses on the weaker cards which made for some nervous trading on day one. As the week went on I got used to the bigger volumes and became much more patient in "slow motion" markets. The only nerves i may face this year are if Betfair crashes and i have to make a counter trade on Betdaq, but that's another story that frustrates me so much i dont talk about it.

My preparation for Cheltenham this year has simply been to stick to the goals i set in January. One of these goals was to try and go ~~25/50~~/100 races without a losing race. I have now achieved two of these targets and although I may not be making as much profit were I to take more risks the benefits I'm feeling elsewhere are outweighing any thoughts of P&L. It has helped me become much more confident in my trading again after poor end to last year. I almost feel Invincible in the markets and working towards these goals is helping to eliminate some of the bad habits and weaknesses that had crept into my game

50 Not Out

Fingers crossed Betfair can prove us all wrong and hold up this week. Good luck everyone!

Sam

Expectations

2011-02-12T03:42:00.000-08:00

I read a post on one of the forums the other day, something along the lines of:

How much can I expect make with a £1000 bank on Betfair?

Like any Betfair forum he was instantly given some stick by seasoned traders and probably won’t return.

Various figures get mentioned here and there about how many people actually succeed on Betfair long term but one thing is certain to me. If you expect to make money from the start you are very much mistaken and will probably fall at the first hurdle. You’re much more likely to progress by expecting to lose your initial investment learning the ropes and suffering the harsh lessons made by all beginners. Evidence of these ‘horror’ stories are scattered on blogs and forums all over the web and this is only by those honest enough to admit it. What about the rest?

Expectations can not only affect new traders but also experienced ones. After 5 years of trading full-time I expect certain results from my trading and when things don’t go to plan it can cause issues in my ability to be focused on markets. This year I’m working much harder on being market focused and not thinking about my Profit & Loss. Even on really good days, thinking about what you’ve made ‘so far’ can alter your decision making and you will probably end up trading over defensively. How many times have you been on for your best day yet only to have a few losses that bring you back down to average?

I believe that the more experience you have, the harder it is to lower your expectations. But just because someone has more experience it does not mean they should expect to perform better than others in the market. Like in any professional sport, new players come through and everyone else has to up their own game to stay in a team or to hold on to a trophy. This rings true on Betfair and other financial markets.

It really is a survival of the fittest.

January and Other Sports

2011-01-31T07:24:00.000-08:00

January

January is never an amazing month on the racing calendar. The poor quality meetings and abandoned race cards can be very frustrating. Many races offer little opportunity and Ive found that being patient and trading defensively is the way to go. Ive managed to beat the previous years January totals and with some extra profits from the Australian open its been a decent start to 2011.

The introduction of the cross matching to racing has also had an effect on the mechanics of the Win market and I imagine certain players are noticing changes for the better/worse. It certainly wont affect everyone but it will be interesting to see how things pan out over the next few months

Other sports

In the past when I'd ventured into other sports I always struggled to adapt. Using the wrong stakes and a clear lack of knowledge on how these markets worked led to some harsh lessons in football which put me off for a while. However, since last year Ive learned how to approach new sports with a completely fresh mindset and money management plan. The tools on Bet-angel: Soccer-Mystic and Tennis-Trader have really helped me to understand the market mechanics and now around 10% of my trading income comes from trading other sports. Understanding how other markets work can also be beneficial when referring back to your primary market. I know a lot more now about the book % and how markets are balanced.

Betfair site maintenance

Betfair returned around midday today but was not functioning at all well. Its best to take the day off in this situation as the market could fail at anytime leaving you exposed. Hopefully it will be sorted in the next few days.

Time to Reflect

2010-12-23T02:05:00.001-08:00

Well It’s been a while since my last post, 6 months to be precise. The current bad weather and abandoned race cards have given me a chance to reflect on things in and outside of trading this year.

When I first started writing this blog, I wanted it to assist my trading and be a reference point for my progression as a trader. I do believe that writing about your experiences and goals is a great way of keeping on track but for me, deciding to share those thoughts became less fulfilling overtime and with much more screen time dedicated to tuition and other trading activity, writing about it all was the last thing on my mind. I’ve now started writing in a Journal instead; it’s much better for me personally. I think it really helps me to let everything out after a days trading. It also doubles up to be like a scrap book of thoughts, ideas and emotion’s. I will often revisit certain post’s to draw on the emotions of that day and use the positive/negative comments to set goals and remember clearly the feelings involved at the time. These kinds of practices are pretty new to me and over the last few months I’ve looked much more in depth at the subject of trading psychology. If I am to make more posts here in the future I imagine they will be tilted more towards psychology and self coaching and how to apply them to sports trading. At the moment I feel like I’m only scraping the edges of a fascinating subject that’s changing the way I think about myself and the markets.

Balance

A trader’s lifestyle should be a balanced one. When I set up the Betting Exchange Tutor site I knew that balancing tuition with my own trading could lead to fatigue so I kept course bookings to a max per week. Looking back at the year now that wasn’t enough, I really enjoyed teaching people about the markets and I witnessed many a“light bulb” moment from clients but by the end of the day I was always extremely tired. Talking about the markets is much more tiring than participating in them and it started to affect my performance especially in the evening racing, some days I wouldn’t even bother trading past 5pm as I knew my mind and body couldn’t compete. I will start teaching again next year but need to strike a balance where it won’t affect my own progression. I like the idea of getting out and teaching people, be it in their homes or offices, even on a laptop In Hyde park if the weathers good. I should be located more centrally in London by early next year so the idea of “mobile betting exchange tutor” is the biggest scribble on a post it note at the moment.

The current “big freeze” has also given me a chance to go back and review my figures from this year. Profit & loss wise it’s been a disappointing end to the year. I always expect to beat previous years and it’s frustrating to know that this wont happened in 2010. I shouldn’t be too hard on myself though, the markets were more competitive than ever and I hadn’t done enough early on in the year with regards to reinvention and setting new targets. I have discovered that finding a balance between scaling down old strategies whilst reinventing new ones is a challenge and in the future I need to be aware of my performance statistically to assist these changes. I didn’t set any long term goals at the beginning of the year either but probably had too higher expectations. That in itself is bad combination and with that kind of mindset I wasn’t trading defensively enough on weaker cards leading to unnecessary losses and stops in momentum.

I’ve learn t a lot about myself and my trading this year, much more than any other and I hope that the physical and mental changes I’ve made to my game will boost my trading in 2011. I’m looking forward to a fresh challenge and for the first time will have goals and targets aim for….. But For now I’m just going to enjoy the Snow, Christmas and New Year.

Have a good one!

Sam

a REAL shock?

2010-03-11T04:47:00.000-08:00

Another interesting night of Champions League action yesterday evening. I was more interested in the Madrid vs Lyon match after a good start on the Utd game. Real went 1-0 up after 6 minutes. The win market hovered around 1.12/1.13 for most of the first half, which was probably value if you saw some of the chances Madrid had. However, Lyon looked much more dangerous in the second half and the potential upside of a Lyon goal became and option. I Layed Madrid at 1.13 and got out straight after the equalizer. Madrid now needed two goals and it was a miracle that the game ended in a draw with Lyon missing countless chances on the counter attack.

In Running Angles

2010-02-23T09:51:00.000-08:00

Many Pre-Race traders dont touch the In-running markets. They are extremely volitile and you will often see traders scrambling to close positions just seconds before the off. Its also likely to witness much larger price movements just after the start regardless of the horses position in the field.

Even with a 4 second delay on sky's racing channels ATR and RUK its still possible to find decent value In-running. Use smaller stakes to stay in control and dont be too greedy. Heres a clip from a few weeks back where i picked a potential in-running steamer based on some factors of the pre-race market.

Right click and "Watch on You Tube!

Champions league belter

2010-02-16T14:11:00.000-08:00

Cracking game tonight between Ac Milan and Manchester Utd, It had everything. There was over 500k matched on Utd at 1.01 when Seedorf scored in the 85th minute. Almost a minute later Inzaghi had a great chance to level the game and pull off an amazing come back.

I had some excellent positions in the correct score market, especially in the first half. On two or three occasions a second Milan goal would have put me in healthy profit, but it was Scholes who popped up with an equalizer to leave me on a much smaller green for that market.

The Drifters

2010-01-30T01:53:00.000-08:00

Caught this drift on camera yesterday on Blue Nymph in the 15:05 at Doncaster. I was trading the favourite but couldnt help noticing the speed of the move in the corner of my eye. The SP according to sporting life was 7/1. I had a specualtive bet at 14.0 just before the off. I wasnt sure if the horse had been playing up and it did touch 40's In Running before going on to WIN the race. Would of been nice to hang on a bit longer before i got out.

"Fergie, sign him up... Fergie Fergie Sign him up"

2010-01-20T03:18:00.000-08:00

Was sung sarcastically by the Man City fans after their 2-1 victory over united last night. Two goal Tevez stole the show but i thought united deserved a draw after all that late pressure. I arrived just in time for kick off and was shocked to see how much the market moved against city pushing them out to over 4.0. United's line up was strong for a Carling cup tie and this clearly had a say in the prices. I was trading the correct score market when united went ahead and managed to get some decent positions before the goal..

City's price went out to 12.5 but with 55 minutes remaining and Bellamy/Tevez looking dangerous i decided to ask for 13.0 and hope for a goal. Not a penny matched when Bellamy goes down in the box to win a penalty for the home side. I guess I've just gotta go with my instincts a bit more.

Twenty Ten

2010-01-14T03:55:00.000-08:00

Well Its been a while since my last post, almost three months to be exact. LOTS of time off at Christmas/New year and LOTS of snow either side of the festive period has put my racing trading on hold up until a few days ago. I recall this time last year i was in Thailand for the countdown and most of January. I will definitely be on a similar trip next Jan. This weather really has reminded me that now is the time of year to be taking a holiday.

However its not all doom and gloom, with the racing off Its given me time to look into other sports and the one Ive always wanted to give a good shot at ~~Soccer~~ Football!

Its my Favorite sport to watch and play so to make it a second income is my main goal this year, especially with the world cup this summer. Its a whole new world of trading compared to what I'm used. The markets are very efficient and going in-play can be dangerous if your unaware of the risks. Ive had a few hard lessons over the years trying football and I'll probably have more but since December I seem to be getting somewhere. Here's a few recent matches I traded In-Play.

I'm having success setting out possible outcomes and strategies before kick off and adapting them as the games progress. Soccer Mystic is a great tool for seeing how odds are expected to move over 90 mins.

Ive also upgraded my Trading Cockpit for 2010.

Quite a change from the Laptop I'd been using for nearly 4 years.

It took a while to get used to but now I couldn't trade effectively without it.

New PC, "23" Monitor, Desk, Chair.

Finally I'd like to wish everyone good luck for 2010. I personally cant wait to get the ball rolling again with Horse racing and hopefully keep the momentum I've gathered with Football going into the world cup.

Educated Scalping / Hybrid style

2009-10-23T02:07:00.000-07:00

My first two years trading were spent as an out and out scalper. Very rarely would I hang on for 4-5 ticks profit/loss. It gave me a great feel for the market and always being "in the money" kept me focused and almost in an auto-pilot mindset. I never monitored graphs or trends and would only use instinct to decide where I could get in and out with little risk.

Maybe I started to peak as scalper or the markets became more suited to another style. Either way I had to change the way I monitor a race and look at the bigger picture, not just the favorite.

Looking back at some recent videos i can see how I've developed a Hybrid style where I can scalp and make small swing trades based on the increased market information i now use. Here's one from last week. Not a massive profit but done with very little risk.

Not Just for Sport

2009-10-13T10:59:00.000-07:00

With nearly 600k matched on the X Factor 2009 winner market after just one live show anyone with an opinion can now have a serious punt on this years batch of wannabee pop stars.

Coincidentally it was my Mum who asked me to put a bet on the X Factor for her over 4 years ago.
After searching an odds comparison site i noticed Betfair's price was the most competitive. This is where it all began for me.

Footage

2009-10-10T05:28:00.000-07:00

I'd been wanting to make some videos of my trading for a while but since returning from holiday I'd been struggling to get back into the action and have therefore been focusing my attention on that. The markets are pretty tricky at the moment. Ive had to reduce activity slightly and not commit too much to a trade as its much harder to get out if I get it wrong.

I recorded some footage of my trading yesterday and it was interesting to watch it back. I was kicking myself at times where i could see myself hanging on too long and being too greedy. It reminded me that i still have a lot to improve on.

This video was from the 17:25 at Carlisle. I chose this one as it shows both swinging and scalping techniques on the favourite. I tried to record the full screen but my fossil of a laptop couldn't cope and was freezing up on me so I had to reduce the recording window. I also missed the start of the action here Im a Camtasia novice.

Much Needed Break

2009-09-24T01:54:00.000-07:00

Ciao! Ive just returned from a much needed break in Sardinia, hence the lack of posts and unanswered comments. We had an incredible trip, the people are very friendly and the food/wine was superb. I hired a convertible mini as a surprise for my girlfriend but had a head in hands moment upon arrival to see thunder clouds and rain. Luckily the weather improved and as we traveled across the island we seemed to follow the sunshine. The Island visually is absolutely stunning, my particular highlight was hiring a boat in Cala-Gonone and stopping at all the remote beaches on the Golfo Di Orosei. Here's a few snaps!

Well its back to business now and hopefully i can pick up where i left off. I'm always a little cautious after a break it can be a little difficult to get the ball rolling again but with the Ascot festival starting tomorrow there should be plenty of opportunities to get back in the swing of things.

Saturdays

2009-09-06T05:25:00.000-07:00

Can be fast and furious with races going off every 5 minutes it does get quite hectic. It’s harder to stay focused so sometimes I will skip races at poorer meetings with lower liquidity. This also gives me more time to assess the next market and possibly get a decent early position.

I started slowly and was probably being a bit too reserved after my awful start on Friday.

I missed the boat on more markets than I’d of liked and had one hefty losse where I didn't bite the bullet and get out of bad a position, saying that the P&L was in a healthy state in the end so I can’t complain.

My best race today was the 3:30 at Haydock. I took a screen shot just after id got into some decent positions and took another just at the end as I was greening up.

"Getting on"




                                                             "Greening up"

Saturday rounded off an amazing week for me. I missed Monday due to Notting Hill Carnival partying. I’ve rarely pulled that much profit out of 104 markets especially in whats supposed to be a quiet week.

I’m putting a good chunk of this into my football account to try some in-play next week… I think it’s important to keep different trading banks separate especially when trying a new sport seriously for the first time. There’s a whole new load of lessons to be learnt and it would be silly to be reckless and throw away money you’ve spent years building
.

Fighting back

2009-09-05T01:39:00.000-07:00

I had one of the worst starts to a day ever yesterday. I'd been out drinking the night before, had little sleep and just wasn’t at the races for the first hour.

"The First Hour"

The first races are so important; if you can have a solid start it sets you up for the day and gets you straight into the zone. This didn’t happen for me, I didn’t quite feel right and should of been more cautious. The first two races I made the huge error of not having the three ladders open and not watching out for what other horses prices were doing. Big gambles on 2^nd favs were sending the favs on big drifts and sending my bank into the red!

A year ago if I had a start like this I’d of either turned the pc off or carried on in a damage limitation exercise i.e. set a target of -100 and stop. But things have changed!

"The Fight Back"

Even on the comeback I was sometimes getting out of trades too early. I suppose sub-consciously I wanted to get back to 0 and then anything else is a bonus. You’d have to be made of stone not to have that mentality, but some people are!

I was chuffed to finish £210 up on the day. Hopefully lesson learned that I do need to be much more cautious and focused from the start, especially when I’m indulging the night before.

Good luck trading today, if you do have a bad start don’t give up and FIGHT BACK!!!

"Instinct"

2009-09-03T10:22:00.000-07:00

You'll hear a lot of pro traders talk about "instinct" when trading races.
In my opinion it can’t be taught and comes purely from experience and putting in many hours watching the numbers. You develop a feel for the market and confidence grows as you start making more and more positive trades. I had lots of ups and downs when I first started, it’s a huge learning curve and you have to be prepared to lose money to progress. I was very close to quitting when something just clicked, I started getting a feel for it and was trying to make £10- £15 a day consistently. That soon turned into
£50 £75 and its been positive ever since.
Wednesday 2nd P&L

I’ve had a great start to the week, I’m 100% focused and confidence keeps growing. Yesterday was very solid and today is still not over however,
I’m prepared for a knock and wont get carried away, you never know what’s around the corner.

The Beginning to Now

2009-09-03T00:35:00.001-07:00

My name is Sam Wilson, I opened a Betfair account in December 2005. My Mum had asked me to put a bet on the X-Factor and after visiting a price comparison site I discovered Betfair. I was intrigued about the betting exchange concept and after a good 3 months of researching sports arbitrage and trading I threw myself into the pit and it turned out to be a life changing decision.

I went full time in May 06 and started recording my results a month later. My first year was amazing, I was extremely motivated and would trade 6-7 days a week doing lots of evening racing in the summer. My second year was equally good profit wise but disappointing in the fact that i didn't top my first years figures. I did take more time off and hardly touched the evening cards, I put it down to this initially but really I should of looked deeper. Motivation and drive were becoming an issue and year three's total profit showed. I wanted to hit new levels but was way too impatient and not focused enough. Big mistakes and not being able to adapt to the key meetings lowered confidence and motivation.

Looking back now have no regrets on how i traded in my third year, It didnt feel like it at the time but it was definitely my biggest learning curve. I have actually now come to realize that my inability to make more money was because of my trading style, I had peaked as a scalper and my methods had to change, hence the title“Adapt and Survive”! its something you'll hear traders say when your losing your edge..! dont get me wrong i was still making a decent living working very little hours but eventually i would of burnt out.

Im hoping now that im ready to push on and recent results have boosted my confidence in my trading.
I will also be trading football inplay as much as i can this season to try and add another string to the bow.
This blog is for me to keep focused, set targets and try to help out anyone whos trying to crack betting exchange trading.

Thanks for reading and good luck!

Sam